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Trade intelligenceScenario arithmetic, not a risk score

Trade Impact Simulator

A business worksheet for tariff changes. Set your assumptions, see the duty difference, then decide what needs checking.

01

Define the affected trade

Use your business’s customs value—not the total trade between two countries.

This worksheet still includes example inputs. Each field shows whether it is an example or your assumption. Replace examples before using the result in a decision.

Example input · Goods’ origin, not the seller’s location

Example input · Where import duty applies

Example input

Example input · 6–10 digits; blank means unconfirmed

Example input · Actual dollars; 120,000,000 means USD 120 million

Example input · Both rates use this same value and period

Example input · Ad valorem rate; 0–1,000%

Example input · Ad valorem rate; 0–1,000%

Not supplied · A stated assumption, not compliance clearance

Not supplied · Check signed terms and importer-of-record obligations

Optional inputs for cost recovery

A price percentage needs affected sales for the same period and an explicit recovery assumption. It is not a margin forecast or a prediction of customer acceptance.

Not supplied · Same annual period as customs value; greater than zero

Not supplied · 0–100%; leave blank if undecided

No price percentage is calculated unless there is a positive modeled duty increase, your business bears the duty, no applicable restriction is stated, and valid sales and recovery assumptions are supplied.

02

What changes for this business?

Baseline and proposed duty on the same affected customs value, for the same annual period.

Additional modeled duty

+USD 6,000,000

+5% of affected customs value · annual

A modeled duty difference, not a measured change in total landed cost, profit or EBITDA.

Baseline duty · 5%
USD 6,000,000
Proposed duty · 10%
USD 12,000,000
Affected customs value
USD 120,000,000

Value × tariff rate ÷ 100. Additional duty = proposed duty − baseline duty.

Duty only. Excludes freight, insurance, FX, VAT, other taxes, exemptions and specific or compound duties. Rates, classification and applicability remain unverified.

03

Choose the next step

Deterministic rules use only the inputs above. No action scores, assumed savings or AI verdicts.

Verify restrictions before acting on this scenario.

More evidence needed
Primary next stepMore evidence needed

Verify product tariffs and restrictions

No applicable external tariff or restriction record has been verified for this scenario.

Before acting
Confirm the destination tariff schedule, rules of origin, effective date and sanctions/export controls.
What the button produces
Verification checklist (Pro). A deterministic working document for review, not an executed instruction.
Why this applies · evidence & limitations

These are scenario inputs, not externally observed intelligence. Unknown values and missing dates remain unknown. Eligibility is determined by explicit rules, not a numerical score.

Restriction status
Value & unit
unknown · status
Assumption status
Unavailable / not supplied
Rule / threshold
unknown
Source
Scenario input; no external provider
Record reference
Not supplied
Observation / effective date
Not supplied
Retrieval date
Not supplied — no external record retrieved
Applies to
China → United States; Smartphones; HS 851713; annual
HS code
Value & unit
851713 · HS code
Assumption status
Example default — not your business data
Rule / threshold
product classification confirmed
Source
Scenario input; no external provider
Record reference
Not supplied
Observation / effective date
Not supplied
Retrieval date
Not supplied — no external record retrieved
Applies to
China → United States; Smartphones; HS 851713; annual

Missing prerequisites / checks

Confirm the destination tariff schedule, rules of origin, effective date and sanctions/export controls.

  • User-defined scenario, not an observed tariff change. Rates and HS applicability have not been verified.
  • Duty only: excludes freight, insurance, FX, VAT, other taxes, exemptions and specific/compound duties. No margin or EBITDA estimate.
  • Restrictions are a compliance constraint, never a cost multiplier. This is not clearance to ship.
Alternative considerationConditional consideration

Review duty-bearing contract terms

The proposed rate creates a positive modeled duty increase on your affected customs value. This supports a terms review, not an automatic renegotiation.

Before acting
Identify the importer of record, Incoterm and party responsible for duty before discussing cost sharing.
What the button produces
Contract review draft and checklist (Pro). A deterministic working document for review, not an executed instruction.
Why this applies · evidence & limitations

These are scenario inputs, not externally observed intelligence. Unknown values and missing dates remain unknown. Eligibility is determined by explicit rules, not a numerical score.

Additional modeled duty
Value & unit
6,000,000 · USD
Assumption status
Derived estimate
Rule / threshold
> 0
Source
Affected customs value × (proposed tariff − baseline tariff) / 100
Record reference
Not supplied
Observation / effective date
Not supplied
Retrieval date
Not supplied — no external record retrieved
Applies to
China → United States; Smartphones; HS 851713; annual
Affected customs value
Value & unit
120,000,000 · USD
Assumption status
Example default — not your business data
Rule / threshold
> 0
Source
Scenario input; no external provider
Record reference
Not supplied
Observation / effective date
Not supplied
Retrieval date
Not supplied — no external record retrieved
Applies to
China → United States; Smartphones; HS 851713; annual
Baseline tariff
Value & unit
5 · %
Assumption status
Example default — not your business data
Rule / threshold
proposed rate > baseline rate
Source
Scenario input; no external provider
Record reference
Not supplied
Observation / effective date
Not supplied
Retrieval date
Not supplied — no external record retrieved
Applies to
China → United States; Smartphones; HS 851713; annual
Proposed tariff
Value & unit
10 · %
Assumption status
Example default — not your business data
Rule / threshold
proposed rate > baseline rate
Source
Scenario input; no external provider
Record reference
Not supplied
Observation / effective date
Not supplied
Retrieval date
Not supplied — no external record retrieved
Applies to
China → United States; Smartphones; HS 851713; annual
Duty bearer
Value & unit
unknown · party
Assumption status
Unavailable / not supplied
Rule / threshold
verify contractual responsibility
Source
Scenario input; no external provider
Record reference
Not supplied
Observation / effective date
Not supplied
Retrieval date
Not supplied — no external record retrieved
Applies to
China → United States; Smartphones; HS 851713; annual

Missing prerequisites / checks

Identify the importer of record, Incoterm and party responsible for duty before discussing cost sharing.

  • User-defined scenario, not an observed tariff change. Rates and HS applicability have not been verified.
  • Duty only: excludes freight, insurance, FX, VAT, other taxes, exemptions and specific/compound duties. No margin or EBITDA estimate.
  • Restrictions are a compliance constraint, never a cost multiplier. This is not clearance to ship.
Assumptions, methodology & optional research

How this worksheet decides

Rules check input validity, restriction status, the sign of the modeled duty change and stated duty-bearing responsibility. Verification comes before commercial consideration when restrictions are unknown; an active restriction withholds commercial actions. Ordering is rule-based, not a probability or confidence ranking.

Previous synthetic feasibility, cost, risk and savings outputs were removed because they were not measured. Country names, exporter counts and generic policy labels do not establish supplier viability, extra costs, savings or a need to renegotiate.

  • User-defined scenario, not an observed tariff change. Rates and HS applicability have not been verified.
  • Duty only: excludes freight, insurance, FX, VAT, other taxes, exemptions and specific/compound duties. No margin or EBITDA estimate.
  • Restrictions are a compliance constraint, never a cost multiplier. This is not clearance to ship.

Why other actions are not shown

  • Pricing review · More evidence needed

    Pricing needs a confirmed business cost bearer and no stated compliance constraint.

  • Switch suppliers · More evidence needed

    No comparable product-specific supplier quotes or destination/origin eligibility evidence. Exporter counts do not justify switching or savings.

Optional national-trade reference

Request country-level context with United States as reporter, China as partner and HS 851713. Direction, classification and period must be checked. This never replaces your customs value or changes action eligibility.

Continue research in the other tools

These are separate research tools, not evidence that promotes an action in this worksheet. Current route: China → United States; Smartphones; HS 851713.

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